Risk Assessment in War-Affected Cities Guiding Housing-Centered Recovery and Urban Reconstruction

Assessing hazards and vulnerabilities affecting cities and the housing sector is a core prerequisite for people centered recovery and resilience. In Ukraine’s war-affected context, local governments face overlapping challenges — from active conflict and infrastructure disruption to displacement, environmental stressors, and long-term social impacts — that require practical, context-sensitive strategizing and planning approaches. The International community of practice and experts are eager to support, however, the need remains that international tools and approaches reflect local contexts and realities in order to achieve a valuable impact. In response to these needs, UNDRR’s Quick Risk Estimation (QRE) methodology as part of the Making Cities Resilient 2030 initiative, has been adapted to Ukraine’s realities. The adapted approach supports municipalities in identifying and prioritizing war- and climate-related hazards and vulnerabilities and compounded risks across sectors, along with feasible mitigation measures. The revised approach integrates qualitative data on community vulnerabilities and supports evidence-based recovery and reconstruction planning. Additionally there are potentials to include risk assessments in the planning and implementation of social housing strategies in Ukrainian cities. The Ukrainian pilot cities of Zhytomyr and Kremenchuk face a high demand of the accommodation of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) and are ready for the innovations in the housing policy. They are developing a new format of resilient and adaptable housing strategies (aligned with the National Housing Strategy under development), which are based on comprehensive housing analyses that take into account the dynamic situation, including of displacement. During the session, the adaptation process of the QRE methodology will be presented, highlighting the cruciality of including local knowledge to adapt globally developed tools, like the QRE, to reflect - and be usable in – a particular local context. The cities of Zhytomyr and Kremenchuk will share their insights on how qualitative risk analysis can inform planning decisions and recovery, additionally shedding light on forms in which qualitative risk analysis can act as a guiding framework for resilience building in particular, in the housing sector. They will also share and relate this to the methodology for applying the concept of resilience to the housing sector, which guided the development of their resilient housing strategies. Together with experts, the needs and potentials for QRE in the fields of housing strategy development are be discussed as well as practical tactics for adapting to the ongoing challenges of the dynamic situation, including of displacement. The exchange will highlight lessons learned, usability, and outcomes, while fostering discussion with participants on community resilience planning and enabling knowledge transfer. The session draws conclusions from the Ukrainian experience and the experience of the participants and formulates general recommendations for the use of risk analysis as a tool for resilience building in urban housing. The session will conclude with reflections on how adapting international approaches such as QRE to specific local contexts and especially resilient housing strategies. This enhances their relevance and impact, delivering valuable insights into how global resilience tools can be effectively translated into meaningful action on the ground and how risk analyses are an indispensable cornerstone of resilient strategy development.